Future Shock
Friday, January 29, 2010 at 10:39AM I'll have more to say on the iPad later but one can't help being struck by the volume and vehemence of apparently technologically sophisticated people inveighing against the iPad.
Some are trying to dismiss these ravings by comparing them to certain comments made after the launch of the iPod in 2001: "No wireless. Les space than a Nomad. Lame.". I fear this January-26th thinking misses the point.
What you're seeing in the industry's reaction to the iPad is nothing less than future shock.
For years we've all held to the belief that computing had to be made simpler for the 'average person'. I find it difficult to come to any conclusion other than that we have totally failed in this effort.
Secretly, I suspect, we technologists quite liked the idea that Normals would be dependent on us for our technological shamanism. Those incantations that only we can perform to heal their computers, those oracular proclamations that we make over the future and the blessings we bestow on purchasing choices.
Ask yourself this: in what other walk of life do grown adults depend on other people to help them buy something? Women often turn to men to help them purchase a car but that's because of the obnoxious misogyny of car dealers, not because ladies worry that the car they buy won't work on their local roads. (Sorry computer/car analogy. My bad.)
I'm often saddened by the infantilising effect of high technology on adults. From being in control of their world, they're thrust back to a childish, mediaeval world in which gremlins appear to torment them and disappear at will and against which magic, spells, and the local witch doctor are their only refuges.
With the iPhone OS as incarnated in the iPad, Apple proposes to do something about this, and I mean really do something about it instead of just talking about doing something about it, and the world is going mental.
Not the entire world, though. The people whose backs have been broken under the weight of technological complexity and failure immediately understand what's happening here. Those of us who patiently, day after day, explain to a child or colleague that the reason there's no Print item in the File menu is because, although the Pages document is filling the screen, Finder is actually the frontmost application and it doesn't have any windows open, understand what's happening here.
The visigoths are at the gate of the city. They're demanding access to software. they're demanding to be in control of their own experience of information. They may not like our high art and culture, they may be really into OpenGL boob-jiggling apps and they may not always share our sense of aesthetics, but they are the people we have claimed to serve for 30 years whilst screwing them over in innumerable ways. There are also many, many more of them than us.
People talk about Steve Jobs' reality distortion field, and I don't disagree that the man has a quasi-hypnotic ability to convince. There's another reality distortion field at work, though, and everyone that makes a living from the tech industry is within its tractor-beam. That RDF tells us that computers are awesome, they work great and only those too stupid to live can't work them.
The tech industry will be in paroxysms of future shock for some time to come. Many will cling to their January-26th notions of what it takes to get "real work" done; cling to the idea that the computer-based part of it is the "real work".
It's not. The Real Work is not formatting the margins, installing the printer driver, uploading the document, finishing the PowerPoint slides, running the software update or reinstalling the OS.
The Real Work is teaching the child, healing the patient, selling the house, logging the road defects, fixing the car at the roadside, capturing the table's order, designing the house and organising the party.
Think of the millions of hours of human effort spent on preventing and recovering from the problems caused by completely open computer systems. Think of the lengths that people have gone to in order to acquire skills that are orthogonal to their core interests and their job, just so they can get their job done.
If the iPad and its successor devices free these people to focus on what they do best, it will dramatically change people's perceptions of computing from something to fear to something to engage enthusiastically with. I find it hard to believe that the loss of background processing isn't a price worth paying to have a computer that isn't frightening anymore.
In the meantime, Adobe and Microsoft will continue to stamp their feet and whine.
Reader Comments (286)
yes, for power users and those who feel they need an "open" platform, Google will now attempt to copy the iPad with its Android OS. there should be an early version by the end of the year, and a better version in 2011. wait for that if you find the iPad too limited and Apple's walled garden too restrictive. but at least thank Apple for showing Google what to start with.
@ David W - you are assuming some things that are not known one way or the other yet. blutooth printing may well be supported. direct iTunes registration may also be supported. even backup to MobileMe is possible (tho i doubt it). and 3G makes a home wifi net (set up via a computer) unnecessary.
so the iPad just might be computer independent. wait and see. i agree, that would be the ideal.
Plus apple has yet to announce what the 4.0 os will be capable of and we all know that's comming with the iPhone refresh around the corner. We also know how they love holding onto their secrets till the last possible second. There was even abrecent article that had leaked quotes form an apple town hall style meeting. Where Steve Jobs is quoted to have said that the next iPhone os update wasngoing go push the devices so afr ahead android and the rest will never catch up.
Interesting article.
I think its right to an extent. Seems like a great way of getting my mother
on the Internet, for instance.
I can't help but look at what's changed though. And it's an easy answer;
control. You've completely blocked regular users from messing about with their
computers, enforced quality control in their third party developers, and
provided a consistent hardware platform. In short, ruled out all the primary
causes of PC / Mac woes at a stroke.
To an extent, it's what the Mac has been about all along; Apple have always
exerted as much control as humanly possible over their platform. And it works.
Macs are viewed as "more stable" because ultimately it's not the development
platform that the PC is. Maybe that's the 'future shock' we're seeing here.
The iPad is a PC (well, Mac) with the Administrator account disabled. You get
a user logon and that's it. It's an interesting marketing pitch, cos when
Microsoft tried a similar approach with Vista, separating user and admin
functionality, the geek community was up in arms.
I've had ostensibly the same discussion comparing iPhone to Android. The core
difference isn't the product, it's its target audience. People who like to
fiddle and play, who like to push the limits of their gadgets, can do so at the
expense of stability. This is common sense, it's inherent in what you're doing
with it.
I wonder perhaps if that's where we're headed ultimately. Black box solutions
for general "users" and workstations, with PCs becoming development machines
for power users. To wit, the iPad isn't for me, but I can definitely see a
market for it.
We live in interesting times.
It's boggling how many PCs out there refuse anything from apple, yet still claim to be computer enthusiasts. Furthermore, it's funny how all the comments seem to be the same:
"Stop writing about the iPad" -- obviously you're feeling a bit jealous that you can't be interested in the device because you're against apple and everything it creates ... and that there just isn't anything else to write about in the computer industry.
"Just a big iPhone" -- wrong
"Just a big iPod" -- there's an ipod in it, so there is some merit to that comment, but overall, you're missing the big picture ... which is probably due to your inability to accept anything made easy because you're an elitist and feel you need to know how to code and hack and tweak just so you feel like you're smarter than everyone else. As mentioned in the exceptional post above, you're hanging on to the past ... eventually you'll be left behind to cherish all your useless consumer computing knowledge by yourself.
"Monopolistic" -- a company creates a seamless user experience and wants to ensure its the best for its customer therefore it's monopolistic? Sounds more like a company that actually cares about its customers rather than merely the profit. (bill gates is known for his wealth, steve jobs is known for his innovation) Ever heard of the Lays company? That's monopolistic!
"No flash?" -- You can join those who think it's just a big iPod and cherish your tech from the past. Flash is buggy ... period. Sure it looks awesome to see video ... there are plenty of other options. Allow me to introduce you to the future ... HTML5. Sorry you can't watch TV on Hulu for free you spoiled little prat.
Continue to whine and complain about the iPad ... it doesn't care about you and neither does anyone else. Just be sure to get your facts straight ... and make it a little more fun by posing actual argument points ... you're starting to get boring due to your predictable, child-like behavior.
I'm a non geek, and I don't really want to learn html or python or C++. I don't want to think about what arcane procedure I need to go through to get my printer to print, or blogger to show a film clip. I want to push a button and forget about it. I want the computer to disappear, and I think the ipad is a step in the right direction. To use the automobile analogy, personal computers, even Macs, are still at the pre Model T stage of development. What would you think of a car that required you to get out and crank it up to get it started, to adjust the magneto or the carburetor, or to fit a special axle to go up a hill? I'm an old guy and my son, who fancies himself something of a geek, hates Macs. I think that's hilarious, but not so hilarious as the caterwauling going on on the internet about the ipad. I don't know anything about their computer skills, but notice a lot of them can't spell.
Good lord, get over yourself. What a complete moron you appear to be. You have no more concept of the needs of humans than does my toilet seat.
Nicely written and spot on!
So PCs fail because the time spent trouble shooting a PC's many problems can be better spent helping patients, designing houses, capturing the table's orders, organizing parties, and finding a cure of AIDS? Okay... so by your definition only physical work or direction human to human interaction is considered 'real work'... and you're a software developer? Also how much time does a doctor or nurse spend troubleshooting computer systems? The answer is close to ZERO because that's what the IT department is for.
Fixing software problems isn't real work? A completely new industry has emerged dedicated just to dealing with computer problems both mac and pc essentially creating a new job market, which the US was lacking last time I checked. Did you forget all of the windows based computer systems that are emerging in health care facilities in an effort to integrate paperless patient records saving time for healthcare workers so they can focus on what they do best: helping patients. What about the windows based cash register at the mom and pop restaurant so there's less time handling money and more time 'capturing the table's orders'? No one is saying there isn't a mac equivalent to what a PC can do (because I'm not arguing Mac vs PC) but the complete denial of what PCs have achieved and how they've impacted how we live today is utter stupidity.
@Joe,
I am a software developer. Why can't everyone else that think like you, understand that computer should work for 99% of the people, and 1% of the people who are software developers should work for the computer, in order to get the computer to work for the 99% of the people.
App Store reviewing process sucks:
It's just that easy, Apple created AppStore to ensure all applications just works. If Apple doesn't review all the apps, you will end up downloading more anti-virus, anti-spammer, anti-trojan apps.
Multitasking:
Seriously, now when you are looking at this comment, you are just looking at your browser at this time. You feel like checking your mail now? You have to open another windows isn't it ? So what's big deal for you to close the Safari and launch the Mail App? And if you are using web-based mail you can just open a new page on the iPhone OS. Remember, there is only 1 active windows you can work on in any OS.
Hope you get it.
^
So your mind can only process absolutely one thing at a time therefore computer multitasking is unnecessary? So you can't listen to music on itunes while writing a word document or surfing the web on safari? I can't have something downloading in the background while I work on a spreadsheet or edit pictures? Having the mail app running in the background and notifying me when I have a new message instead of mindlessly checking it at random points during the day isn't more efficient? What about running an instant messaging program while doing other tasks? Oh right... by your logic I have to be 100% dedicated to the task at hand so I guess I'll have to set aside time dedicated to talking to my friend (at which time I can only talk to my friend and nothing else otherwise I'd have to close the program and open another one to do something else), listening to music, checking my mail randomly, and surfing the web. Yep I got it.
P.S. I wrote this post while listening to music and video chatting with my friend on skype.
I find this article dead on and far better writing than I could manage. My reaction here is more to the comments.
I find it strange how people think the App store is a closed ecosystem considering the variety I find there… I've heard it compared to a theocracy where the Apple priesthood controls all thought that is contained therein. True enough and it seems to be a step up from Anarchy where people treat all resources as theirs exclusively… their phone, their network, their ability to install root kits on peoples phones to sniff confidential data. Not having to monitor applications for which one has stability and security issues is not all bad. Is having a simple device really going to rob people of experience? No it gives the opportunity of finding new experiences instead of indulging in old frustrations.
I certainly get why people think of the jailbreak trade off as "Apple jerking you around with the countless things they don't allow" vs "geek nirvana but the hardware still sucks". I think the trade is more accurately stated as "Occasionally having to find a work around while software engineers have the incentive to produce greatness" vs. "this ** Apple makes is taking forever to boot". The Jailbreak community seems to exist to make Apple devices into an unstable den of software pirates and information thieves instead of spending their effort enhancing open devices which have their own potential for greatness.
When the App store was first announced there were stated limitations announced that pretty clearly were there for the benefit of cellular providers. That applications developers and customers shocked by the occasional app denial have not paid any attention to the cellular marketplace. Apple WANTS AT&T to make money hand over fist. Cellular infrastructure is not cheap and their stock holders are hard to persuade when it comes to investment. If people paid what they wanted the cellular infrastructure would be falling into the disrepair of our roads instead of the continued speed and stability improvements.
Many of the Apps are thin clients pulling their data from the Internet and once HTML5 has locked down a few more caching features most of the applications that are out there are easily achievable through javascript. This technology isn't locked by Apple to any content at all and is how Apple originally they claimed the content should be distributed. The cloud will be our canvas with it's live updates and social data. Host your own server for anything you want to share for less than that $99 a year. Dynamic K-14 content freely available wirelessly to the nations schools/home schools with randomly generated tests, interactive multimedia help and nationwide realtime reporting? It could be a reality within the year.
This device is the Star Trek thin client that was envisioned from the start. When you saw somebody pick one up you knew they were just looking at an interface fed directly from the ships computer… Nothing but a thin client for cloud system. I think the iPad fed by WebGL and other technologies that are coming soon to Safari will be where secure data is stored securely on remote systems… Not the App store with potential theft of local data when the device is physically taken. Will Apple be the only cheap WebKit thin client producer with access to this online plethora? It seems unlikely as this is the Chrome OS reason to be.
Software complaints are seldom dead on. a DRM riddled mess is a bit overstated. Closed: Protected AAC (not sold any more), Protected MPEG-4 video file (HULU has DRM via Flash), APPs (locked to iPhone OS (surprise)). Open: the remaining 30 kinds of supported content (AAC/MP3/MP4/PDF/ePub/etc…). Will iPhone run Flash (the #1 cause of Mac OS Crashes)? Goes against stability and burns the battery. Adobe has created a method to port Flash to iPhone apps if there is some game that you MUST play. Multitasking? The device streams MP3, plays synced content and checks mail in the background. Stateless programming and push alerts covers most situations if you are creative. For the most part Multitasking steals productivity and focus and it is better to avoid it. VoIP while working? buy a cheap iPod touch or other VoIP device if you must voice chat while using your iPad. More apps=more memory=more battery life loss.
Hardware complaints have their own work arounds. Is Apple trying to do away with all physical media including SD cards? People are surprised by this? Media convergence is here. Many cameras and SD cards are starting to build in WiFi and can post direct to Facebook and I'd be surprised if the iPad could not cope with MP4 stream from wireless cameras. As to not being able to read in direct sunlight… Do you have any idea what UV does to your eyes???
I think it's a bit ironic that you can't develop an iPhone/iPad app on the device itself. That will always take real computing and require multi-tasking.
There's an amazing array of circular logic here. The defenders (maybe disciples is a better word in some cases) are arguing both sides of the fence in many cases. For example I've heard all of the following argued:
1. It is essential that Apple be able to restrict applications to preserve this "never any problems" OS
2. There are 140,000 apps, the app you need is there no matter how obscure
3. If the app you need isn't there your Enterprise can develop one separate from the Apple Store
So which is it. If Enterprises can develop Apps separate from the App store, then Apple's blessing seems to be not so necessary after all. If that wonderful App store with 140,000 apps has every app we'd ever need, why do we need Enterprise development? And by the way I own a small business in a vertical market...no Enterprise developers here to develop the vertical apps I need, and they are not in the store. And BTW, Apple admits that not all applications are rejected because they are unstable. Some are rejected because they duplicate the core functionality of the iPhone. And really, if the OS was so stable and the stability of apps was such a concern why do I have to reboot my iPhone once a week or so and why are there thousands of apps with ratings that say "Wont' run", "Crashes every time I run it".
Everyone who seems to think the iPad isn't the greatest thing in the history of computing is labeled here as a hater. Call me a hater if you want, but I own an iPhone and I think it was indeed revolutionary. But I don't think making it bigger, adding some peripherals, and calling it a tablet makes it "Future Shock". If so, what one thing is so different that the iPhone wasn't the harbinger of the future of computing? Because the screen is bigger? What if it was 6" instead of 10"? Would that be revolutionary? 5"? 9"? Where is the magical dividing line that takes it from being the a bigger version of the iPhone of 2 years ago and the Future of Technology? Maybe I'm holding out for a 20" screen before I'm a believer.
And while you're calling me a hater think about this...if tomorrow Microsoft released a desktop OS that was proven to be the most stable in history, but you could only buy applications approved by Microsoft, how many of you would be saying that was a great idea? I think some of the hating goes both ways here.
All iPad did for me is turn me into an Apple developer and give me reason to toss my netbook in the recycle bin. Oh yeah, and I won't be slaying more trees with my book purchases. Bring it on!
Holy cow. Excellent points, funny, just perfect. So refreshing to read real thought on the actual future of computing.
Extremely well written and to the point, and one article that I shall probably reference for future use! I wish all unthinking iPad bashers would read this post and start thinking for a change! A lot of people react emotionally, rather than rationally as seems to be the case with many of the complaints that a lot of iPad complainers love to belly ache about.
@ Cal no one has ever said the app store is perfect. Yes crashes do happen but there can be numerous reasons for that and not all of them can be tested for. Their could be an error that cropped up when it was down loaded, the phone could have errors in it's OS and need restoring or even updating and don't forget they might also be jail broken and as such not identical to the test specs. As I have said before I forsee Qpple expanding the App aproval process as they expand it's use to further refine it. As for if I would say these same things if Microsoft did this (and I belive they likely will in some form or fashion) I would have to see the product and test it's stability I have only recently left the windows world for Apples and I owe them no loyalty though my past fustrations with windows would make me suspicious initially.
"The ipads failings are the lack of basic features that many were hoping for and expecting. "
Someone didn't read the article.
"I want to edit my photos in Photoshop..."
Someone really didn't read the article.
The iPad is not a general-purpose computer, people. It is not meant to be one. It is not meant to replace one. What part of "not" do you not get?
I will bet the ranch that Apple built one with a camera, and discovered that staring up at someone from crotch level on a jiggling camera is not a great experience. I would also bet the ranch that had they built it in anyway, we'd be reading rants (from the very same naysayers) about what a stupid and useless feature it is.
What does puzzle me is the decision not to have a USB port ... I'd dearly love to have Apple's rationale for that one. WiFi- or Bluetooth-enabled printers and cameras aren't yet common enough to justify the omission. Yeah, you can plug in a 30-pin/USB adapter, but that's a decidely un-Apple-like kluge.
"if tomorrow Microsoft released a desktop OS that was proven to be the most stable in history, but you could only buy applications approved by Microsoft, how many of you would be saying that was a great idea?"
That would be a fantastic idea. Everyone who found the apps to be sufficient for their work would love it. Win7, MS Word, Outlook, Excel, Powerpoint, Internet Explorer, Windows Media Player, Access, Exchange, nothing but MS software ... oh wait, I can do that now. Or I can bollox it up with third party drivers, tweakers, and anti-malware apps. (That is the MS party line, is it not?)
Apple, by maintaining control of the hardware and software, tries to reduce or eliminate the bollox-it-up options. If you don't like that, you can go buy a Wintel box and try not to bollox it up. The mystery is why folks who choose the latter option whine so much about the very existence of the former. Might it have something to do with the fact that the former is so damned profitable, and the not-unrelated fact that the people who choose it like it so much?
@ Jim D I'm guessing it was partially an asthetic choice as I've seen some mock ups people put as proof it could be done and they are quite ugly, but it may also be to preserve battery power in that alot of devices not only comunicatr via USB but draw their power via one. All in all though apple seems to not like them as they push more and more of thier tech to wifi and Bluetooth connections and have very few ports even one thier Mac lines. I won't mind so much as long as they do include the ability to print over wifi as I hate wires running everywhere as well as carrying them everywhere when working on location. So I'm the market that killing USB is aimed at hehe. But I will agree we are not a dominate enough number to exclude them. But maybe apple has a way for the dock cord to interact with printers guess we'll see in March.
@JimD You miss my point. The article tells us how this is the future of computing. If this is the future of computing it implies that the future is a world where the choice will be taken away in order to give us stability. I have no theoretical problem with this being one of several choices. My issue is with those who want to take Apple's product announcement and make it seem to be some huge step forward in how we see computers. The problem is that the stability comes at the expense of free choice. When stability and free choice can co-exist, THAT will be a paradigm shift. Those who are convinced that we should be experiencing "Future Shock" as a result of this have set the bar extremely low in my view.
First of all, even the most theoretical of computing is just as much "real work" as "organizing a party" or what have you.
"Secretly, I suspect, we technologists quite liked the idea that Normals would be dependent on us for our technological shamanism."
Yes, and let the women be dependent on men for their choices, let the citizens depend on the government for action, let the priests control our innocence, let those unwilling to think for themselves defer to those "smarter" and "more experienced" than they are.
I find this line of thinking to be the single most evil thing the human race is facing in the future. The reason there are many more of "them" than "us" is that adults of today are ACCUSTOMED to having someone else think for them.
Can you imagine a child growing up in the future, touching her hands to a computer even more amazing than the iPad, with such a strong desire to understand how it works and how to create her own, but cannot because its technology is so secret, so powerful and guarded that she will never be able to reach that goal? Imagine the benefits to society that would never materialize. If you think that future is impossible, think again. It happens all the time – they are called "trade secrets".
I believe in a future where people think for themselves, have the freedom to do what they wish with their belongings, can learn with ease, can share information quickly, where logic and reason govern our thoughts, and where curiosity supplants greed. You call that utopia? Fine. I don't just believe in it, I'm actually working every waking hour to make it happen. I'm not going to let some intellectual candy bar stop me, either.
There is nothing wrong with something being easy to use, accessible to the beginner. That's what makes something great -- like a math textbook that is deep and rich but easy to read. What IS wrong is putting the difficult stuff out of reach for the "rest of us".
Brilliant, Fraser! Thank you.
So, I read this blog post and was very impressed. I think essentially it is correct and that the iPad could represent a move towards computers becoming more like smart appliances.
Then I saw this: http://www.tuaw.com/2010/02/02/apple-forces-stanza-to-nix-usb-book-sharing/
So, by allowing Apple to be my content and software manager, they can pick and chose what I get to run on my device. Which apps, the features of those apps, and the content those apps can use.
Relying completely on some company to manage my needs means the company has to make every right decision for me. It's like I'm leasing my own equipment. I'm sorry, I'm just not that simple, predictable, or stupid. I am a grown up, I can handle working my own electronic devices.